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Matteo Pilotto

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World Cup Predictor: how to get it right

[fa icon="calendar'] 24-Jul-2018 12:30:00 / by Matteo Pilotto posted in Insider, Making Data Work, Tableau, StorytellingWithData, Visualisations, 2018, "alteryx"

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Germany? Brazil? Spain?
We went for France at the beginning and...we got right. How did we do it? Well, we used data.

At CDO Partners we are big on data and we looked at player's statistics to "predict" the result of the World Cup. Many other companies attempted to do the same but they got it wrong. So what did we do differently to make us effectively predict France's victory in Russia?

Our approach was based on the single player rather than on historical teams' performances or players' international experience. We adopted a combined approach that looks at the players' performance over the last year as well as their value on the market.

  • Players' Performance: the combination of player-level aggregated data and statistics from last season resulted in an indicator of the player's form at the beginning of the world cup
  • Players' Value: the market value of every single player taken from the end of last season
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